Although policy makers and analysts in China seem to agree that the outcome of the US election will not change the structural US-China competition, officials in China have expressed recently that they are watching the US election closely.
A Biden presidency means reevaluation (including possibility of removal) of tariffs on Chinese goods. What would be the “pressure on” and “pressure off”areas over China during a possible Biden presidency?
Would a second-term Trump Presidency be a tougher term, or an easier term on China, comparing to the first?
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Speaking from inside the US, I feel like increasing aggression on China is mostly an internal issue, rather than something China has a large influence over. US is seeking multiple paths to heightening tensions, and that sentiment is bi-partisan, with corporations with ties to China only doing behind-the-scenes work to slow it down to the extent that it hurts the own self-interest/business. Of course, only the great masses of people suffer when the two major powers disagree, so they would be the ones who can slow it down or turn the relationship around. But mainstream media has held back these forces.
I feel like some kind of soft power breakthrough to touch the hearts of the American people is the best path to "pressure off." Anything that China does can and will be interpreted as a "pressure on" action by mainstream US institutions for the short and medium-term future.
2.
Regardless of who wins the election, I think the next presidency will see a tougher term for China.
1.
Speaking from inside the US, I feel like increasing aggression on China is mostly an internal issue, rather than something China has a large influence over. US is seeking multiple paths to heightening tensions, and that sentiment is bi-partisan, with corporations with ties to China only doing behind-the-scenes work to slow it down to the extent that it hurts the own self-interest/business. Of course, only the great masses of people suffer when the two major powers disagree, so they would be the ones who can slow it down or turn the relationship around. But mainstream media has held back these forces.
I feel like some kind of soft power breakthrough to touch the hearts of the American people is the best path to "pressure off." Anything that China does can and will be interpreted as a "pressure on" action by mainstream US institutions for the short and medium-term future.
2.
Regardless of who wins the election, I think the next presidency will see a tougher term for China.